Maharashtra, Jharkhand polls may follow national election trends: Ruchir Sharma

Renowned global investor and author, Ruchir Sharma, on Saturday spoke about the upcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, asserting that there is a recurring trend in Indian elections, especially when state polls follow within six to twelve months of the Lok Sabha (general) elections.
Speaking with India Today News Director Rahul Kanwal, Sharma suggested that under these circumstances, the voting trends observed in the national elections often tend to repeat at the state polls.
“In Indian elections, a recurring pattern often emerges: when a state election takes place within 6 to 12 months of Lok Sabha polls, the same voting trends are frequently reflected in the state results,” he said.
When asked about the recent election results in Haryana and how they might impact Maharashtra and Jharkhand, Sharma pointed out that although momentum and popular opinion might suggest otherwise, each state election in India is distinct.
“I don’t believe in this momentum theory. If momentum was the issue, then the BJP would have never won Haryana, because the momentum was so against it. India’s elections are inherently distinct, with each state’s voting behaviour influenced by regional issues, regardless of the national sentiment,” he said.
Referring to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, where the Maha Vikas Aghadi — comprising Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) and the Congress — won 31 out of 48 seats, Sharma suggested that this trend might persist in the upcoming Assembly polls, asserting that his perspective was based on historical patterns rather than recent field observations.
Sharma then turned his attention to the Haryana election, which he described as “possibly the freakiest election result I have ever seen in India”. He explained that virtually no one, from journalists to party insiders, anticipated the actual outcome. “Not one journalist who came back from Haryana said, Hey, something different may happen,” he noted, adding that even BJP insiders had no indication of an unexpected shift.
The polling for the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly will take place in a single phase on November 20, while Jharkhand will vote to elect its 81-member Assembly in two phases — November 13 and 20. Counting of votes for both states will take place on November 23.